Get Ready for MERS-CoV-2

Science has already predicted it.

Photo by Reiseuhu.de on Unsplash

If you’re debating whether Covid-19 and MERS-CoV (“camel flu”) could merge into a single nasty virus soon, the answer is yes they can.

Scientists have already answered that question in an article titled, “The Recombination Potential between SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV from Cross-Species Spill-over Infections.” It was published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health in 2021. The viruses are genetically similar, and they replicate in almost the exact same way. There’s a high chance for crossover. The authors outline some basic precautions to keep that from happening.

The last sentence of the article says, “we strongly recommend extra-precautionary measures to avoid MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 merging into a novel coronavirus.” Basically, don’t make MERS-CoV-2.

That’s a pretty clear warning.

Right now, soccer fans all over the world are traveling to Qatar for the FIFA world cup. Most of them aren’t taking any precautions whatsoever, happy to pick up and spread whatever pathogens they come into contact with. Health agencies have warned travelers to be careful about MERS-CoV.

It comes with a mortality rate of 36 percent.

Cue the minimizers...

As soon as stories started circulating about the risks, more stories popped up downplaying it. An article on Yahoo News calls the stories “sensationalist” and goes on to say, “there is not much more to see here.” It focuses on the fact that MERS doesn’t pass easily between people. It also does the standard move of complaining about the name of the disease.

A bunch of smug trolls claiming to be science experts and data geeks have been throwing around accusations of fearmongering, telling everyone that viruses behave in predictable ways and there’s nothing to worry about.

These minimizers are completely missing the point.

Let’s talk about how viruses have kids.

Disease experts aren’t just worried about an outbreak of MERS-CoV. They’re worried about MERS-CoV recombining with SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19), and producing something that’s more contagious and deadly.

The two have a lot in common.

We already know that MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are both coronaviruses, which means they’re both unsegmented RNA viruses. That means they can recombine quite easily, through a process called template switching. An article in Nature describes how RNA viruses undergo recombination.

Basically, they swap genetic material. That happens during coinfection, when two RNA viruses infect the same person. All someone has to do is catch Covid, then fly to Qatar and catch MERS.

It’s that easy.

Here’s a little diagram to explain:

Different RNA viruses recombine at different rates. SARS-CoV-2 is what biologists call an +ssRNA virus, or positive-sense-single-stranded. That means it recombines a lot. These types of viruses have other unique characteristics. As Sara Ryding explains, they can “modulate the gene expression and defenses of the host by co-opting host factors.” Covid-19 has been mutating and evading our immune systems more than almost any virus we’ve ever seen. That’s why we’ve had such a hard time getting rid of it, and it’s why our vaccines can’t keep up.

Now, what about MERS-CoV?

It’s also +ssRNA.

According to Frontiers in Public Health, scientists have seen MERS recombine at least five times, into “at least five major phylogenetically stable lineages, all of which contained human and camel MERS-CoV sequences.”

Although MERS-CoV has become endemic in camels, studies point to bats as the original source. An article in Virology Journal describes how scientists screened thousands of bats in Ghana. They found two coronaviruses “genetically very closely related to MERS-CoV.” A study on bats in South Africa found another coronavirus that also “has a very close phylogenetic relationship to MERS-CoV.” Scientists also studied bats in Saudi Arabia, and they found MERS-CoV.

All of this information tells a story: Bats gave MERS-CoV to camels, and now camels are giving it to humans. The data shows that SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV share ancestors. In other words, RNA viruses have already undergone recombination to produce SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. They swapped genes. Their children learned how to infect humans. If the children meet, scientists suspect they’ll recombine again. They’ll swap genetic material.

I’m going to put this in the simplest way I can. If MERS-CoV stumbles across SARS-CoV-2 on Tinder, it’s going to swipe right. If they infect the same person, they’re going to swap genes. It’s what they do. The odds are in their favor. They come from the same family. They’re both coronaviruses that originated in bats. Their ancestors have almost certainly recombined in the past.

That’s how they got here.

It’s not just possible.

It’s probable.

We’ve let SARS-CoV-2 become endemic throughout the world. It spreads all year now. It’s a matter of time before it meets up with MERS-CoV and then recombines in a way that’s more contagious and deadly.

We’re doing nothing to stop it. If anything, the majority of the world seems to laugh and shrug off these possibilities.

They shouldn’t.

Here’s the larger point: SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t have to sync with MERS-CoV in order to produce another major threat. It has options. This is just one of many that are likely to occur within the next few years. It could happen next week or next month. We don’t know. That’s the most unsettling part.

The minimizers are asking the wrong questions. The biggest question isn’t whether it will happen. The science says it will.

The real question is whether we’ll do what’s necessary to avoid it, and how we'll respond when it finally happens.

So far, the viruses are winning.